Over the last year one of the world’s biggest fears for the future was losing jobs due to automation and AI. Some analysts predicted that up to a quarter of the working population would become jobless, up to 47% in the US and 35% in the UK, but new research from the OECD suggests otherwise.
It sees the number much lower, with job loss in the US and UK at 10% and 12% respectively. The OECD says the previous forecasts exaggerated the impact of automation because they relied on a broad stroke approach of grouping together of jobs with the same title. Its new comprehensive analysis, by contrast, takes account of the differences between jobs with the same name, producing a more accurate estimation.
A UK Cities Outlook 2018 report, also argues that the threat of job loss is no more severe than the industrial revolution that saw a fast bounce back of employment after initial changes. It’s a matter of understanding how to transfer skills across to different jobs after automation begins. More people in more meaningful jobs will allow for greater innovation and growth over the long term.
This story is taken from the 06 April 2018 edition of The Warren Centre’s Prototype newsletter. Sign up for the Prototype here.